By Alex Ababio
ACCRA, Ghana —
As the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) enters its fifth year of implementation, Ghana — the host of the AfCFTA Secretariat — finds itself in an uncomfortable paradox: it imports far more goods under the AfCFTA than it exports, threatening its trade balance and raising questions about the country’s readiness to harness the full benefits of Africa’s flagship economic integration effort.
This revelation comes from seasoned trade practitioner Louis Yaw Afful, an International Trade and AfCFTA Consultant, who presented detailed trade data at a high-profile media forum on the “Investment Outlook in Ghana Under AfCFTA.”
“The imbalance is largely due to Ghana’s limited manufacturing capacity compared to countries like South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, and Kenya, which export more finished goods,” Mr. Afful told journalists and policymakers. “Importers are taking advantage of this agreement much more than exporters.”
His comments underscore a troubling trend — one that imperils Ghana’s industrial policy goals and puts at risk the wider continental vision of a competitive, value-added intra-African trading bloc.
Understanding Ghana’s AfCFTA Trade Profile
Since becoming operational in January 2021, the AfCFTA has created a preferential market linking 55 countries and more than 1.3 billion consumers. Proponents project that by harmonising tariffs and cutting trade costs, the pact could lift millions out of poverty and boost intra-African trade significantly.
But recent trade performance suggests Ghana has yet to squarely benefit from these transformational goals.
Official trade statistics for 2024 show Ghana ended the year with a GH₵44.7 billion surplus, buoyed by traditional exports such as gold, petroleum, and cocoa — but imports remain significant.
While this headline trade surplus points to broad export strength, it hides a more nuanced story about intra-African trade — the key focus area for AfCFTA.
Mr. Afful revealed that Ghana accounts for over 40 per cent of AfCFTA-compliant imports, yet its share of exports under the preferential regime stays noticeably low. This data aligns with historical patterns reported by the Ghana Shippers Authority, which found imports exceeding exports under AfCFTA since the agreement came into effect.
Tariff Liberalisation: Catalyst and Conundrum
Ghana adopted a 10-year tariff liberalisation regime under AfCFTA, gradually reducing duties by an average of 2.5 per cent annually. The policy was designed to widen market access and encourage regional business activity.
“While this encourages trade, it has also made Ghana a major destination for AfCFTA-compliant imports,” Mr. Afful explained at the forum.
Indeed, tariff reductions, while lowering the cost of imports, appear to have outpaced Ghana’s capacity to export competitively — particularly manufactured and value-added goods. Experts argue this asymmetry is not unique to Ghana; regional patterns show intra-African trade remains structurally weak, hovering around 16 per cent of total African exports — far below levels seen in other trading blocs such as Asia or the EU.
Manufacturing and Value Addition: Where Ghana Falls Short
At the core of the trade imbalance is the narrow industrial base of Ghana. Unlike South Africa — whose diversified manufacturing sector and retail networks (like Shoprite) make it a major exporter across the continent — Ghana’s industrial output remains concentrated in primary and semi-processed commodities.
“The limited manufacturing capacity compared to countries like South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, and Kenya, which export more finished goods,’’ Mr. Afful said.
For example, while Ghana produces significant volumes of cocoa, gold, and petroleum, the country has struggled to convert raw materials into finished or higher-value products. This gap hinders competitiveness under AfCFTA, where value addition unlocks preferential market access.
An encouraging development came in May 2024, when Ghana received approval to trade 700 locally made products under AfCFTA after securing rules-of-origin certification, enabling duty-free trade across the bloc. However, translating this certification into robust export volumes necessitates productive capacity, quality standards compliance, and supply-chain investment — areas where Ghana lags behind regional peers.
Policy Signals and Government Efforts
The Ghanaian government has acknowledged these imbalances and is pursuing policy responses.
Trade, Agribusiness and Industry Minister Elizabeth Ofosu-Adjare has repeatedly urged firms to prioritise local sourcing and value addition to strengthen export competitiveness. In May 2025, she pushed automotive firms to use Ghanaian inputs to qualify for AfCFTA benefits, stressing the need to reduce reliance on imports and strengthen domestic supply chains.
In late 2025, the government also announced a review of the National AfCFTA Policy Framework and Action Plan — a strategic document first promulgated in 2022 — to incorporate additional protocols and better align Ghana’s trade strategy with evolving AfCFTA rules.
Moreover, Ghana’s leadership has engaged both African and global partners to broaden trade and investment avenues. President John Dramani Mahama, in August 2025, pitched Ghana as a gateway to the $3.4 trillion AfCFTA market at the Africa-Singapore Business Forum — stressing the need for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to compete effectively.
The Hidden Economy: Informal Trade’s Role
While formal trade statistics highlight macro trends, a growing body of evidence points to the economically significant but under-measured role of informal trade.
The Ghana Statistical Service’s first comprehensive Informal Cross-Border Trade (ICBT) Survey revealed that Ghana recorded GH₵7.4 billion in informal trade during the final quarter of 2024 — goods that largely escape formal customs monitoring.
This informal activity — which includes foodstuffs, consumer goods, and livestock — is crucial for jobs, food security, and border economies. Although informal exports and imports nearly balanced at 52 per cent and 48 per cent respectively, such exchanges highlight a substantial trade economy outside official frameworks, complicating the picture of Ghana’s true AfCFTA trade performance.
External Perspectives: Regional Trends and Expert Warnings
Economists and trade specialists warn that without deepening manufacturing capacity, Ghana — and indeed much of Africa — risks perpetuating a raw-commodity export model that underutilises AfCFTA’s market potential.
A recent Brookings Institution analysis shows that while AfCFTA has boosted intra-African trade since 2021, structural constraints remain, including weak industrialisation, regulatory hurdles, and limited economic complexity.
This echoes concerns from business leaders at regional conferences who argue that African economies must emulate successful trading blocs by fostering value chains, quality standards, and production linkages to propel exports beyond primary goods.
What Ghana Must Do to Flip the Trade Narrative
Experts propose a multi-pronged approach to reposition Ghana’s AfCFTA trade performance:
1. Boost Manufacturing and Value Addition
Beyond commodities, Ghana needs targeted support for sectors such as agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, and light manufacturing — where export potential under preferential access is high.
2. Strengthen Export Ecosystems
This includes finance access, quality infrastructure, logistics, and compliance with standards, critical ingredients for meeting regional demand and scaling production.
3. Enhance Data and Policy Integration
Building better statistics — particularly on informal trade — will enable more precise policymaking and help formalise vibrant border economies.
4. Leverage Strategic Trade Diplomacy
Ghana must balance AfCFTA commitments with bilateral engagements — such as ongoing talks over the U.S. Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and tariff regimes — to secure wider market access and mitigate external shocks.
Conclusion: Navigating Promise and Reality
Ghana’s experience with AfCFTA reflects both the promise and complexity of continental trade integration. While tariff liberalisation has encouraged market participation and opened doors for Ghanaian firms, import dominance and weak manufacturing capacity threaten to derail the gains.
Mr. Afful’s warning is stark but clear:
“Continued reliance on imports without boosting exports could weaken Ghana’s industrial base and undermine AfCFTA’s objectives.”
Unlocking the AfCFTA’s potential will require deep structural reforms, concerted government action, and partnerships with the private sector to build a competitive, export-oriented economy.
As Africa strives to fulfil the ambitious vision of a unified economic space, Ghana’s journey — fraught with challenges, but rich in possibilities — offers a crucial case study of how nations can navigate the complex terrain of integration, industrialisation, and shared prosperity.